Sea Ice Outlook: July Reports Available
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
For further information and to view the Pan-Arctic and Regional reports,
please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/july
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The July SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook reports (based on June data) are now
available! The Summary, Full Pan-Arctic Outlook, and Regional Outlook
are available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/july
With 16 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook, estimates ranged from 4.0
to 5.5 million square kilometers for the September arctic mean sea ice
extent. The median value was 4.6 million square kilometers. It is
important to note for context that all 2011 estimates are well below the
1979 - 2007 September climatological mean of 6.7 million square
kilometers.
There continues to be a consensus for continuation of an anomalously low
sea ice extent similar to the values for 2008-2010 and below all
previous values before 2007. The data show a continuing low value of sea
ice extent at the beginning of the summer season and an appearance of a
weather pattern (the Arctic Dipole) that tends to favor summer sea ice
loss, in contrast to weak and variable summer winds of previous decades.
Ocean changes may also be involved. These new factors over the last
several years seem to be holding the September sea ice extent at
persistent low values below 5.0 million square kilometers.
The Regional Outlook can help shed light on the uncertainties associated
with the estimates in the Pan-Arctic Outlook by providing more detail at
the regional scale. With the exception of the Greenland Sea, all regions
are expected to exhibit below-average ice extent throughout the
remainder of the season.
This month's Outlook reports also include a more detailed discussion of
sea ice thickness information provided from field measurements and model
results.
For more information on the Sea Ice Outlook, see the main Outlook
website at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, Arctic Research Consortium of the
U.S. (ARCUS)
Email: helen [at] arcus.org