Sea Ice Outlook: June Reports Available
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
For further information and to view the Pan-Arctic and Regional reports,
please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/june
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The June SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook reports are now available! The
Pan-Arctic Summary, Full Pan-Arctic Outlook, and Regional Outlook are
available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/june.
The 2011 June Pan-Arctic Outlook report suggests a modest decrease for
summer 2011. With 19 responses for the pan-arctic (and 7 for the
regional outlook), including several new contributors, the June Sea Ice
Outlook projects a September 2011 arctic sea ice extent median value of
4.7 million square kilometers.
This compares to observed September values of 4.7 in 2008, 5.4 in 2009,
and 4.9 in 2010. The range of values is 4.0 to 5.6 million square
kilometers, but the distribution is skewed toward lower values,
suggesting either persistent conditions or a substantial drop below 2008
and 2010 values and the long-term downward trend. The 2011 June Outlook
differs from the 2010 Outlook by not including projections of major
increases in extent. It is important to note for context that all 2011
estimates are well below the 1979-2007 September climatological mean of
6.7 million square kilometers. The regional outlook suggests that the
long-term downward trend is expected to continue in all regions with the
exception of the Greenland Sea.
Individual responses were based on a range of methods: statistical,
numerical models, comparison with previous observations and rates of ice
loss, and composites of several approaches. The range of Outlook values
suggest that most uncertainty lies in the separate methods to the
Outlook. The consensus of a stable low level of sea ice extent or
continued modest sea ice loss is a strong result.
The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook is an international effort to provide a
community-wide summary of the expected September arctic sea ice minimum.
Monthly reports released throughout the summer synthesize community
estimates of the current state and expected minimum of sea ice--at both
a pan-arctic and regional scale.
This is the first monthly SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook for the 2011 season;
the next report will be published in early July, with calls for
contributions at the end of this month.
Guidelines for contributors can be found at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/guidelines.
For more information on the Sea Ice Outlook, see the main Outlook
website at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org