Date

Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
August Report
2010 Sea Ice Outlook
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 16 August 2010
Please note that the submission information has changed from previous
months.

For further information about the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

Or contact: Helen Wiggins
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

Or: Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the
August SIO report.

The submission deadline for the August report is Monday, 16 August 2010.

Since the August Outlook will be the last SIO report before the seasonal
sea ice minimum, past contributors are encouraged to focus their
contribution on an update from previous months' Outlooks. Updates can be
brief, but should include your current estimate, how it has changed from
previous months, and why. All updates should be sent to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org.

New contributors should provide the standard Outlook information, which
is detailed below.

Reports summarizing or incorporating field and ship-based observations
of sea ice are also encouraged.

For more information on the Sea Ice Outlook, go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

All Outlook submissions should be sent to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at
helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

A Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your submission and
will not post Word documents.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK

For the August report, contributors may provide updates from previous
months (your current estimate, how it has changed from previous months,
and why), rather than a standard full report (see below for full report
sections).

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea
    ice monthly mean extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square
    kilometers, the third lowest in the satellite record.

  2. Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale (and Discussion of Changes from Previous Months)
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK

For the August report, contributors may provide updates from previous
months (a short update for your region of interest, how it has changed
from previous months, and why), rather than a standard full report (see
below for full report sections).

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara and Barents Seas
- High Arctic (north of 85N)
- Greenland Sea
- Baffin Bay -- Labrador Sea
- Hudson Bay

Shipping Routes
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk -- Churchill)

  1. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2009.

  2. Outline of Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
    estimate.

  3. Estimate of Forecast Skill (Optional)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

  4. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

All Outlooks should be sent to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org.

The submission deadline for the August report is Monday, 16 August 2010.

FOR MORE INFORMATION

Further information about the Sea Ice Outlook is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

Or by contacting:

Hajo Eicken, Core Integration Group
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Helen Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office
Email: helen [at] arcus.org