Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
For further information and to view the Pan-Arctic and Regional reports,
please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/june
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The June SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook reports are now available! The
Pan-Arctic Summary, Full Pan-Arctic Outlook, and Regional Outlook are
available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/june.
With 19 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook, the June Sea Ice Outlook
projects a September 2012 arctic sea extent median value of 4.4 million
square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square
kilometers. This compares to observed September values of 4.6 in 2011,
4.9 in 2010, and 5.4 in 2009. Both the 2012 quartile values and the
range (4.1 to 4.9) are quite narrow. The 2012 June Outlook differs from
all previous Outlooks in that there are no projections of extent greater
than 5.0. It is always important to note for context that all 2012
estimates are well below the 1979-2007 September mean of 6.7 million
square kilometers.
Individual responses are based on a range of methods: statistical,
numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice loss,
composites of several approaches, estimates based on various non-sea ice
datasets and trends, and subjective information. The consensus is for a
continued downward trend of September sea ice. It seems that the time
may have come to declare that the arctic sea ice has in fact reached a
"New Normal." The physical justification for this statement is based
primarily on the loss of old, thick sea ice and the increased mobility
of sea ice. An expanded discussion of sea ice age and thickness is
included in this month's full report, which includes new sea ice
thickness data from NASA IceBridge aircraft flights in March-April 2012.
In addition to the Pan-Arctic Outlooks, there were six contributions to
the June Regional Outlook report. The regional outlooks shed light on
the uncertainties associated with the estimates in the Pan-Arctic
Outlook by providing more detail at the regional scale, including: the
Northwest Passage and Hudson Bay/Hudson Strait shipping routes,
Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, the Canadian Archipelago/Nares Strait, and
Barents/Greenland Seas.
This is the first monthly SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook for 2012; this season's
schedule and a link to contributor guidelines is below.
TENTATIVE 2012 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE
JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions:
4 June. Publish reports online: 11 June.
JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 2 July.
Publish reports online: 10 July.
AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 2 August.
Publish reports online: 10 August.
SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for
contributions: 4 September. Publish updates online: 10 September.
MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.
POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis:
late October.
Guidelines for contributors can be found at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/guidelines.
The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook produces monthly reports throughout the
summer that synthesize projections of the expected sea ice minimum, at
both pan-arctic and regional scales.
For background on the Sea Ice Outlook, see the main Outlook
website at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, SEARCH Project Office, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
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