July Report (Based on June Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline:
Thursday, 5 July 2012
For further information, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the
second report of the season, the July report (based on June data). We
encourage past and new contributors to participate. The SEARCH SIO is an
international project that provides a monthly synthesis of estimates of
the September arctic sea ice minimum
(http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php).
ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at: helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as
relevant:
PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]
An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website -- we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.
SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:
Extent Projection
Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
ice extent (in million square kilometers).Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
ensemble runs, etc.).Rationale
Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.Executive Summary
Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
two or three sentences.Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty,
or error associated with your prediction.
We would like to expand discussion of ice thickness in the monthly
reports, so please include any relevant information on
ice thickness (or age), if available.
Submission deadline: Thursday, 5 July 2012.
Please send your Pan-Arctic Outlook to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:
- Region of Interest
While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
specify which of the following the outlook applies to:
Arctic Regions:
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea
Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)
Sea Ice Parameter
Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
than those of summer 2011.Outline of Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
estimate.Estimate of Forecast Skill
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
prediction?
Submission deadline: Thursday, 5 July 2012.
Please send your Regional Outlook to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
The 2012 Outlook season is a transition year to an expanded Outlook in
2013; this year, we are including an expanded discussion of ice
thickness and the relative performance of different Outlook techniques,
and improving access to relevant outlook data (see "Data Resources"
webpage at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php). So in
addition to the pan-arctic and regional outlook contributions, we invite
any information or input to those topics as well.
TENTATIVE 2012 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE
JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions: 4 June.
Publish reports online: 11 June.
JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 5 July.
Publish reports online: 11 July.
AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 6 August.
Publish reports online: 11 August.
SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for
contributions: 4 September. Publish updates online: 11 September.
MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.
POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis:
late October.
For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.
Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
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